# News You Can Bruise for 2009June27 (entry 1)

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You Will Go To See Moon

(3) Dada Chess Addendum: The last time I did some Dada Chess statistics, White checkmated 7.8% of the time and Black checkmated 8.1% of the time. That was with 5787 games played and I thought it wasn't a significant difference. But now with 13308 games played, White checkmates 7.6% of the time and Black checkmates 8.4% of the time. The total percentage of checkmates is pretty much the same (15.86% then, 15.96% now).

The numbers are large and steady enough that I'm starting to wonder if there is some significant advantage in Dada Chess to not moving first. I can't think of what it could be.

Posted by Nathaniel at Sun Jun 28 2009 19:26

R's 'prop.test' function says that difference is statistically significant (p < 0.02)... though that number is probably inflated a little bit by the fact that we looked at the data before choosing to make that comparison.

Posted by Zack at Sun Jun 28 2009 20:26

You don't have quite enough trials to say Black has an advantage yet, but it's getting close. If neither player had an advantage, the game should behave as a binomial distribution with probability of win equal to half the total number of checkmates (8.18%). The observed 7.6% white checkmates and 8.4% black checkmates could be due to chance with probability 0.1369 and 0.1329, respectively.

Posted by b at Thu Jul 02 2009 03:50

Most moves are bad moves. Being first to get pieces across the board means being more likely to be first to lose material. And each time you lose a piece the number of capturing moves available to you will tend to go down, so perhaps a difference in material tends to be magnified?

How often is white the first to lose material? Or first to lose a major piece? After N moves what percentage of the time has white lost more material than black?

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