(2) Mon Sep 05 2011 15:55 Loaded Dice, Round 2: At Pat's suggestion I did some more number-crunching and put the results in Loaded Dice. First, check out Standard deviation of ratings over time. Although the average rating is higher for new games than for old games, the standard deviation is always about 0.8. That is: the average rating for any 1980 game is some number, plus or minus 0.8; and the average rating for any 2010 game is a slightly higher number, plus or minus 0.8. The range of opinion is surprisingly limited.

Also take a look at the huge new section on Ownership and the Trade Market, full of graphs and tables taken from BGG's information about how many people own a game, how many people want to own it, and how many want to get rid of it. Including but not limited to:

- You can almost see the median BGG rating on the graph of excess copies versus game rating—it's the inflection point between "excess copies" and "excess demand for copies".
- Games that people really want even though they're awful. (includes NYCB favorite
__Up Against The Wall, Motherfucker!__) - Bad games that a lot of people bought and are now stuck with.
- Good games you can probably get for cheap.
- Games that need reprints or cheaper editions.
- Games that people kinda sorta want but not enough to do anything about it.
- A suspicious list of supposedly great games that almost nobody owns.

- Comments:
Posted by bob at Sun Sep 11 2011 21:42

Seems like the excess should be normalized somehow. If the number of people claiming ownership isn't available (I didn't see it) then how about dividing by the number of people who rated the game?

The number of people who have Monopoly to sell is less than 2% of the number who rated the game, but for the Tom Clancy game that ratio is over 40%.