Fri Sep 07 2007 09:47 Response to Nate Oman's Post on Church Growth:
See http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=4071 for original post.
As a fellow Nicaraguan Mission alumnus (99—01) I think C. Clark is pretty accurate in his assessment. The ‘baseball baptisms’ were a real problem in those early days as they artificially bloated the statistics in the nascent 90s. In Granada, where I served, there was a little as 4% church activity. I would often find people who were already baptized, but who weren’t aware they were on the church rolls. Part of that unsustainable growth may have simply resulted from the liberalization of religion in Nicaragua. Once the dust settled, the possibility for real substantial growth was possible (which fruits were harvested just as I was leaving—reflected in the creation of 6 new stakes within 6 years); partly as a result of the lack of the worldly trappings which so often funnel people’s energies to develop the baser side of their souls at the expense of the noble.
I also visited just a few months ago and was joyfully surprised how solid and prosperous the recent growth has become. Now, the Nicaraguan Saints don’t just have paper growth, but prosperity has allowed their influence to expand beyond their numbers.
That is why an extrapolation from Nicaraguan growth, globally would be a difficult stretch; except perhaps in places like China or Zimbabwe (well, perhaps those places constitute a major portion of the world, come to think of it—I am not as hopeful for old Europe).
Generally, however, I don’t think the church is going to see cyclical patterns. I don’t quite know what the future hold, but it does look extremely hopeful. I am less inclined to think there will be cyclical growth-decline because of the fact that there is so much to do before the curtain is drawn and the stage reset.
It seems much more likely that the church will steadily grow in influence and notoriety, if not simply in numbers; so that all people everywhere will have to sit up and take notice. It will have to be sufficiently strong on the world’s attentional radar to give most people the chance to prepare for the second coming.