(Part of Loaded Dice.)
In July 2013 I fetched the BoardGameGeek dataset a third time. My main goal was to see if the trends I discovered in 2012 had continued. I was especially interested in rating inflation and the cult-of-the-new effect.
Before we get started I'd like to point out that a lot of games from my 2011 list of Pre-1990 games still greatly in demand have now been re-released or remade. I think this shows the practical value of my analysis.
5712 games were added to the BGG database since I last checked in 2012. (Back then, I found 7328 new games since I first checked in 2011.) 56% of these (3204) were "new" games, with publication dates in 2012 or 2013.
In the 2012 dataset, 3520 (48%) games were "new". This isn't a valid year-on-year comparison, because I took the 2012 data in August, not July. Adjust the data to account for that, and it looks like about 3200 games are released every year.
This graph shows how many games from each year since 1900 were added to BGG since the last Loaded Dice update. The graph looks almost exactly like last year's graph, shifted over a year. The most popular release years were 2013 (1677 games added) and 2012 (1527 games added).
718 games were added without any publication date, and 736 were added with a known publication date earlier than 2000. The oldest game added to BGG since last time was Jarmo, which supposedly dates from 1227. There's also Minchiate, a deck of cards that can be traced back to 1466.
Here are a few interesting older games that were added in the past year:
The story so far: In 2011, the mean rating of all games on BGG was 6.82. In August 2012, I used my initial cult-of-the-new calculation to establish that the mean rating handed out since my first data collection (to a non-unknown game published after 1960) was 7.00, significantly higher than the overall rating for the mean game, which was 6.85.
In July 2013, I calculated the cult-of-the-new effect again and found that the mean rating handed out in the year since my last update (again, to a non-unknown game published after 1960) was 6.97.
Year | Mean new rating | Median new rating | Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|
-2011 | 6.82 | 6.95 | 0.88 |
2011-2012 | 7.0 | 6.98 | 0.87 |
2012-2013 | 6.97 | 7.1 | 0.80 |
What I didn't expect is that someone who likes a game in 2013 gives it a slightly lower rating than they would have in 2012. Rating inflation is still happening, relative to the 2011 baseline, but it seems to be slowing down. In fact, rating inflation may have been on the decline even in 2011. We'll never know, unless someone has been collecting BGG rating data from earlier than 2011.
Last year I said the median new rating hadn't gone up, but it actually had; just not very far. This year, the median new rating went up a lot. The high ratings are not evenly distributed, with some games getting lots of high ratings and low ratings. The high ratings are accruing to the top half of games. The opinions of BGG users are converging over time.
Here's the effect all these individual ratings given by BGG users have had over time on the aggregate ratings of games.
Year | Rating of the mean game | Rating of the median game | Standard deviation |
---|---|---|---|
2011/07 | 6.82 | 6.95 | 0.88 |
2012/08 | 6.85 | 6.98 | 0.87 |
2013/07 | 6.97 | 7.00 | 0.86 |
The mean rating continues to increase. The mean new rating was lower in 2013 than in 2012, but it's still higher than the 2011 baseline. The median game is rated higher than in 2012, though still very close to the 2013 mean, and the 2013 standard deviation is slightly lower than the 2012 one.
Again, this tells me that BGG users are coming into closer agreement about which games are good, and how good they are. I would really like to know whether this has any objective basis or whether it's the result of groupthink. (This is why I'm so interested in games whose ratings change a lot year-over-year.)
At this point, the rating of the mean game exactly equals the mean
new rating given to a game. Is this just a coincidence, or will this
hold true from now on? Check back next year, I guess.
Formerly underrated games
Almost the same deal as in 2012. I looked at all games with at least 20 ratings in my 2012 dataset, plus at least 200 more in my 2013 dataset. This eliminates obvious attempts to game BGG's rating system, as well as games that that have only been played by a few people at cons. For each game I calculated the "cult-of-the-new effect": the difference between the rating an average person gives the game now, and the rating an average person was giving it a year ago.
My first list shows the games with the highest positive cult-of-the-new effect: games that people rated much more positively in 2013 than they did in 2012.
Game | Released in | Votes as of 201208 | 201208 rating | New votes from 201208-201307 | 201307 rating | CotN effect |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zombies!!! | 2001 | 5030 | 5.60 | 4217 | 6.39 | 1.73 |
Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | 2012 | 22 | 6.90 | 3719 | 8.01 | 1.12 |
Indigo | 2012 | 87 | 6.15 | 258 | 6.71 | 0.74 |
Star Trek: Catan | 2012 | 39 | 6.70 | 356 | 7.30 | 0.66 |
Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective | 1981 | 1013 | 7.32 | 384 | 7.49 | 0.61 |
River Dragons | 2000 | 1110 | 6.29 | 304 | 6.42 | 0.59 |
Mansions of Madness: Forbidden Alchemy | 2011 | 133 | 7.59 | 267 | 7.90 | 0.47 |
Gloom | 2004 | 2958 | 6.30 | 942 | 6.41 | 0.44 |
Ground Floor | 2012 | 47 | 6.99 | 571 | 7.39 | 0.44 |
Railways of the World | 2005 | 6180 | 7.67 | 1287 | 7.75 | 0.43 |
Sentinels of the Multiverse | 2011 | 750 | 7.43 | 1864 | 7.73 | 0.42 |
Tsuro | 2004 | 4632 | 6.53 | 1597 | 6.63 | 0.39 |
Tammany Hall | 2007 | 425 | 7.25 | 566 | 7.45 | 0.35 |
The Game of Life | 1960 | 3926 | 3.97 | 510 | 4.00 | 0.28 |
Magic: The Gathering | 1993 | 11504 | 7.36 | 1822 | 7.39 | 0.28 |
Blood Bowl (Third Edition) | 1994 | 2898 | 7.56 | 345 | 7.59 | 0.26 |
HeroQuest | 1989 | 4918 | 6.88 | 563 | 6.91 | 0.25 |
Abalone | 1987 | 2858 | 6.41 | 299 | 6.43 | 0.25 |
Dungeon! | 1975 | 1017 | 5.90 | 382 | 5.96 | 0.24 |
The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game - Conflict at the Carrock | 2011 | 440 | 7.59 | 209 | 7.66 | 0.24 |
The same point I made last year applies: these games were underrated in 2012 relative to their current rating. "The Game of Life" went from a really terrible 3.97 to an also-terrible 4.00. But that's a pretty big jump for a game that had almost 4000 ratings to begin with, so there's probably an explanation for it. (I don't know the explanation.)
If you look at the BGG pages for the older games in this list, you'll find that most of them were republished in 2012. This is especially noticeable for "Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective" and "Dungeon!". This makes the old game appear "underrated" in two ways: the reprint usually has better production quality, and it's evaluated by a new group of people who judge it by 2013's inflated standards. Apparently even a poorly-rated game like "Dungeon!" benefits from rating inflation if it gets reprinted.
This year's list of underrated games has no overlap with last year's. Six of last year's underrated games didn't even meet the criteria for this year's list--that is, they didn't get 200 new ratings between 2012 and 2013. Most of the rest proved to have been somewhat overrated in hindsight. 2011's most underrated game, "1989: Dawn of Freedom" was highly overrated in 2012, obtaining a 2012 CotN effect of -0.49. However, "Castles of Burgundy" and "Get Bit!" were underrated two years in a row, with 2012 CotN effects of 0.11 and 0.07, respectively.
"The Resistance" seems to have settled on a stable rating. That game
got 3336 new votes between my 2012 dataset and my 2013 dataset, but
its CotN effect was -0.01 and its rating is unchanged at 7.54.
Formerly overrated games
Same deal as the underrated games, only I'm looking at the games with the highest negative cult-of-the-new effect.
Game | Released in | Votes as of 201208 | 201208 rating | Votes from 201208-201307 | 201307 rating | CotN effect |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Briefcase | 2012 | 22 | 8.27 | 270 | 6.61 | -1.79 |
War of the Ring (first edition) | 2004 | 7384 | 7.94 | 321 | 7.89 | -1.17 |
Among the Stars | 2012 | 23 | 8.00 | 644 | 7.06 | -0.97 |
Thunderstone: Dragonspire | 2011 | 1587 | 7.77 | 337 | 7.63 | -0.82 |
Yomi | 2011 | 1520 | 7.59 | 308 | 7.45 | -0.81 |
Descent: Journeys in the Dark | 2005 | 7918 | 7.52 | 630 | 7.47 | -0.79 |
Blue Moon | 2004 | 4167 | 6.87 | 218 | 6.83 | -0.78 |
BattleLore | 2006 | 7331 | 7.54 | 346 | 7.51 | -0.75 |
Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 2012 | 369 | 8.66 | 3397 | 8.01 | -0.72 |
Power Grid: Factory Manager | 2009 | 3804 | 7.08 | 404 | 7.01 | -0.72 |
Farmageddon | 2012 | 28 | 7.17 | 289 | 6.53 | -0.71 |
No Retreat! The Russian Front | 2011 | 471 | 8.27 | 241 | 8.03 | -0.70 |
1960: The Making of the President | 2007 | 5208 | 7.65 | 422 | 7.60 | -0.69 |
Dungeon Run | 2011 | 713 | 6.78 | 327 | 6.56 | -0.69 |
GOSU | 2010 | 1522 | 6.93 | 310 | 6.82 | -0.68 |
Earth Reborn | 2010 | 1552 | 8.18 | 438 | 8.04 | -0.67 |
Apples to Apples | 1999 | 9017 | 6.36 | 1015 | 6.29 | -0.67 |
Puzzle Strike | 2010 | 1039 | 7.11 | 254 | 6.98 | -0.66 |
Campaign Manager 2008 | 2009 | 1542 | 6.95 | 238 | 6.86 | -0.66 |
La Città | 2000 | 3759 | 7.24 | 220 | 7.20 | -0.65 |
Again, these games were overrated in 2012 relative to their current rating. They're not necessarily bad games; twelve of them have ratings higher than the median rating.
Unlike the list of underrated games, the list of overrated games has a lot of overlap with last year's list. "Thunderstone: Dragonspire", "Dungeon Run", "Yomi" and "Puzzle Strike" have proven to be highly overrated two years in a row. Last year's most overrated game was 2010's "War of the Ring Collectors Edition", and this year, the same thing nearly happened to the 2004 first edition of the same game. "A Few Acres of Snow" didn't make the top twenty this year, but it's at #27 with a CotN effect of -0.55.
At this point I feel pretty confident in saying those are games that were incredibly hyped upon their release, and that their initial high ratings will take several years to cancel out.
But at least people are still playing those games. Nine of the
games on last year's top-twenty list didn't get 200 ratings this
year, so they weren't even considered. The best news from last
year's list was "The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game - The Hunt for
Gollum", which maintained its rating of 7.35 despite 231 new
ratings, achieving a CotN effect of zero.
Games growing or shrinking in popularity
Last year I called this section "Late Bloomers", but that didn't really capture what I wanted to find out. I'm interested in seeing which games became significantly more popular over the past year.
Now that I have three years of data, I can calculate this a lot more accurately. Using 2010 as a baseline, I know how many new ratings each game got in 2011, and how many each game got in 2012. The ratio of those numbers will show how much more popular a game became in 2012.
Game | Released in | 201208 ratings | 201307 ratings | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sorts | 2006 | 12 | 80 | 68.00% | 5.94 |
Unexpected Treasures | 2002 | 31 | 245 | 53.50% | 6.29 |
Polis: Fight for the Hegemony | 2010 | 20 | 427 | 50.88% | 8.31 |
Extra! | 1989 | 166 | 253 | 14.50% | 6.50 |
Arctic Scavengers | 2009 | 170 | 311 | 14.10% | 6.82 |
Pax Baltica | 2009 | 18 | 74 | 14.00% | 7.62 |
Midway: Turning Point in the Pacific | 2002 | 73 | 86 | 13.00% | 7.11 |
Kapitän Wackelpudding | 1994 | 146 | 158 | 12.00% | 6.24 |
Kingmaker Variant Event Cards | 1977 | 96 | 108 | 12.00% | 7.08 |
Crude: The Oil Game | 1974 | 388 | 587 | 11.71% | 6.90 |
Mad Scientist | 2000 | 80 | 91 | 11.00% | 4.43 |
Western Town | 2005 | 14 | 153 | 9.93% | 7.50 |
Der Herr der Ringe: Die Zwei Türme | 2002 | 69 | 78 | 9.00% | 5.93 |
Zombies!!! | 2001 | 5030 | 9247 | 8.75% | 6.39 |
Gold Connection | 1992 | 107 | 115 | 8.00% | 6.45 |
Midgard: Das Brettspiel | 2007 | 56 | 64 | 8.00% | 6.87 |
Battle Hymn: Leatherneck | 1988 | 108 | 115 | 7.00% | 7.60 |
Wapi | 2003 | 53 | 60 | 7.00% | 5.03 |
String Railway | 2009 | 211 | 553 | 6.98% | 6.66 |
Merchants of the Middle Ages | 1999 | 783 | 1039 | 6.56% | 6.99 |
I don't really have any comments on this, except that I saw "Merchants of the Middle Ages" on the discount shelf at a game store yesterday. Maybe overstock has driven its increase in popularity.
Surprisingly, there were no games that had drastically fewer new ratings in 2013 than in 2012. Here are the 20 games that lost the most popularity last year, judging from number of new ratings. The difference is never more than 1%.
Game | Released in | 201208 ratings | 201307 ratings | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
I Don't Know, What Do You Want To Play? | 2007 | 82 | 81 | -1.00% | 6.76 |
Sergeants! On the Eastern Front | 2004 | 77 | 76 | -1.00% | 6.23 |
History of War | 2003 | 92 | 88 | -1.00% | 5.88 |
Battlecards: World Conflict; Pacific Theatre; Starter Set | 2003 | 65 | 63 | -1.00% | 5.69 |
Pirate King | 2006 | 227 | 201 | -0.90% | 5.87 |
One More Barrel | 2008 | 124 | 111 | -0.87% | 6.65 |
The Three Days of Gettysburg (second edition) | 2000 | 67 | 64 | -0.75% | 7.04 |
Hong Kong | 1999 | 65 | 63 | -0.67% | 5.84 |
Medievalia | 2007 | 120 | 114 | -0.60% | 5.89 |
Santa Fe | 1992 | 192 | 189 | -0.60% | 7.01 |
Treasure Fleet | 2006 | 61 | 60 | -0.50% | 6.13 |
BattleBots: Kickbot Arena | 2001 | 51 | 50 | -0.50% | 4.09 |
Grav Armor | 1982 | 55 | 54 | -0.50% | 6.36 |
Ultimatum | 1985 | 58 | 57 | -0.50% | 5.75 |
Mausoleum | 2000 | 89 | 88 | -0.50% | 4.63 |
6 Billion | 1999 | 125 | 124 | -0.50% | 5.32 |
Bulp! | 2007 | 57 | 54 | -0.43% | 5.07 |
90° | 2008 | 55 | 54 | -0.33% | 7.63 |
Warmachine Prime Remix | 2006 | 144 | 141 | -0.33% | 8.28 |
Ekonos | 2004 | 94 | 92 | -0.33% | 6.74 |
What about other measures of popularity? For instance, how about seeing how many people actually bought a given game in 2012? I couldn't do this calculation last year because I'd be comparing one year's worth of data against a baseline that went back ten years or more. But now I can compare 2012 numbers to 2013 numbers.
Here are the games with the biggest percentage increases in ownership in 2013, versus 2012:
Game | Released in | 201208 new owners | 201307 new owners | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unexpected Treasures | 2002 | 34 | 362 | 328.00% | 6.29 |
Polis: Fight for the Hegemony | 2010 | 18 | 801 | 195.75% | 8.31 |
Arctic Scavengers | 2009 | 122 | 454 | 110.67% | 6.82 |
Pax Baltica | 2009 | 25 | 305 | 93.33% | 7.62 |
Western Town | 2005 | 4 | 282 | 92.67% | 7.50 |
Sorts | 2006 | 8 | 121 | 56.50% | 5.94 |
Locomotive Werks | 2002 | 181 | 370 | 27.00% | 6.88 |
Extra! | 1989 | 133 | 271 | 19.71% | 6.50 |
Crude: The Oil Game | 1974 | 368 | 799 | 18.74% | 6.90 |
Chainmail | 2009 | 155 | 205 | 16.67% | 5.87 |
Anathema | 2003 | 237 | 278 | 13.67% | 5.55 |
String Railway | 2009 | 163 | 868 | 13.30% | 6.66 |
Tammany Hall | 2007 | 472 | 1661 | 10.25% | 7.45 |
Objective: Kiev | 2010 | 65 | 295 | 10.00% | 7.17 |
Hansa Extrakarte | 2004 | 184 | 193 | 9.00% | 6.59 |
Railways of the World | 2005 | 5309 | 7451 | 8.24% | 7.75 |
Zombies!!! | 2001 | 5688 | 11044 | 8.18% | 6.39 |
Merchants of the Middle Ages | 1999 | 925 | 1626 | 8.15% | 6.99 |
Rockband Manager | 2010 | 75 | 306 | 7.97% | 6.37 |
Hanabi | 2010 | 444 | 3425 | 6.76% | 7.57 |
As you might expect, a big increase in ownership corresponds to a big increase in the number of ratings. But a small increase in ownership doesn't seem highly correlated with a small increase in the number of ratings. Here are the games with the smallest percentage increases in ownership in 2013:
Game | Released in | 201208 new owners | 201307 new owners | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Piraci: Córka Gubernatora | 2006 | 57 | 54 | -1.50% | 5.97 |
Hexxagon | 1992 | 9 | 8 | -1.00% | 5.51 |
Fan Tan | 0 | 42 | 37 | -0.71% | 5.44 |
Knockabout | 2001 | 122 | 120 | -0.67% | 6.87 |
The Three Days of Gettysburg (second edition) | 2000 | 210 | 204 | -0.55% | 7.04 |
Mustang | 2007 | 56 | 53 | -0.50% | 5.11 |
Tortuga | 2003 | 119 | 118 | -0.50% | 5.38 |
The Aztec Market | 2009 | 81 | 78 | -0.33% | 7.17 |
CrackeD ICE | 2002 | 56 | 55 | -0.33% | 5.53 |
Battlecards: World Conflict; Western European Campaign; Starter Set | 2001 | 201 | 200 | -0.25% | 5.50 |
Cannonball Colony | 2008 | 69 | 68 | -0.20% | 7.06 |
My Little Pony Hide & Seek | 2005 | 40 | 33 | -0.19% | 5.11 |
Age of Steam Expansion: Austria & India | 2007 | 163 | 162 | -0.17% | 7.32 |
Martinis & Men | 2007 | 85 | 84 | -0.17% | 5.10 |
Ultimate Werewolf: Whitebox Edition | 2007 | 88 | 87 | -0.17% | 6.51 |
Taktika | 2007 | 177 | 175 | -0.15% | 7.20 |
Start Player: A Kinda Collectible Card Game | 2006 | 206 | 205 | -0.12% | 6.64 |
Alien City | 2002 | 59 | 58 | -0.12% | 7.14 |
Brawling Battleships | 2003 | 104 | 103 | -0.12% | 6.39 |
6 Billion | 1999 | 248 | 247 | -0.12% | 5.32 |
BoardGameGeek also has a wishlist feature. We can see which games people started disproportionately putting on their wishlist in 2012, versus what was happening in 2011. Several of these games also enjoyed high positive cult-of-the-new effects.
Game | Released in | 201208 wishlists | 201307 wishlists | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Railways of the World | 2005 | 1188 | 2122 | 66.71% | 7.75 |
Zombies!!! 2: Zombie Corps(e) | 2002 | 68 | 121 | 53.00% | 6.11 |
Zombies!!! 3: Mall Walkers | 2003 | 70 | 121 | 51.00% | 6.20 |
Mare Nostrum | 2003 | 599 | 639 | 40.00% | 6.79 |
World Without End | 2009 | 632 | 667 | 35.00% | 7.36 |
Black Spy | 1981 | 12 | 45 | 33.00% | 5.97 |
Chez Geek | 1999 | 88 | 153 | 32.50% | 5.78 |
Unexpected Treasures | 2002 | 20 | 80 | 30.00% | 6.29 |
Warrior Knights | 2006 | 720 | 778 | 29.00% | 6.92 |
Caesar's Gallic War | 2009 | 32 | 57 | 25.00% | 6.80 |
Zombies!!! | 2001 | 207 | 465 | 21.50% | 6.39 |
Memoir '44: Air Pack | 2007 | 366 | 383 | 17.00% | 7.64 |
Operation Jubilee: Dieppe, August 1942 | 2010 | 42 | 58 | 16.00% | 7.30 |
River Dragons | 2000 | 111 | 292 | 15.08% | 6.42 |
Ys | 2004 | 441 | 471 | 15.00% | 7.04 |
The Princes of Machu Picchu | 2008 | 304 | 319 | 15.00% | 7.02 |
Baltimore & Ohio | 2009 | 128 | 143 | 15.00% | 7.34 |
Intruder | 1980 | 107 | 121 | 14.00% | 6.51 |
Munchkin 7: More Good Cards | 2008 | 82 | 110 | 14.00% | 6.76 |
Masques | 2010 | 104 | 157 | 13.25% | 6.83 |
And here are the games there were added to the fewest wishlists in 2013, proportionately speaking.
Game | Released in | 201208 wishlists | 201307 wishlists | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Confucius | 2008 | 292 | 271 | -10.50% | 6.94 |
Wings of War: WW2 Deluxe set | 2009 | 102 | 94 | -8.00% | 7.38 |
Tannhäuser: Ramirez | 2008 | 54 | 46 | -8.00% | 7.29 |
Gheos | 2006 | 374 | 361 | -6.50% | 6.58 |
Thunderbolt/Apache Leader | 1991 | 108 | 89 | -6.33% | 7.12 |
Let's Kill | 1997 | 59 | 53 | -6.00% | 5.37 |
Typo | 2004 | 42 | 36 | -6.00% | 6.16 |
WFF 'N PROOF | 1962 | 37 | 31 | -6.00% | 4.88 |
Cosmic Wimpout | 1975 | 57 | 51 | -6.00% | 5.93 |
Code 777 | 1985 | 307 | 279 | -5.60% | 6.80 |
Bangkok Klongs | 2010 | 49 | 38 | -5.50% | 6.28 |
Covert Action | 2007 | 97 | 86 | -5.50% | 5.30 |
Nightfall | 2011 | 523 | 497 | -5.20% | 6.78 |
Order Up | 2009 | 17 | 12 | -5.00% | 6.10 |
Chainmail | 2009 | 80 | 75 | -5.00% | 5.87 |
Sultan | 2007 | 27 | 22 | -5.00% | 6.14 |
Infernal Contraption | 2007 | 177 | 167 | -5.00% | 6.00 |
Genesis | 2006 | 80 | 75 | -5.00% | 6.48 |
Wacky Wacky West | 1991 | 112 | 107 | -5.00% | 6.34 |
Wiz-War | 1983 | 455 | 418 | -4.62% | 6.96 |
"Chainmail" had a big relative boost in ownership, but a big
relative drop in being added to wishlists. That's the only game here that
bears out a naive model of BGG usage--that people put
games they want on their wishlist and remove them when they buy the
game.
Changes in excess copies: the market in action
Back in 2011 I introduced the concept of excess copies: the difference between the number of people offering a game for trade on BGG, and the number of people who want to receive that game in trade. A game with a negative number of excess copies is in demand.
A game with a positive number of excess copies has negative demand in the trade market. This is different from low demand in the market as a whole. If a game is readily available and not too expensive, people would rather buy a new copy than get someone else's used copy. Popular games like Dominion have a lot of excess copies, but new copies still sell very well.
To straighten out that wrinkle, I'd now like to introduce the concept of the excess copy percentage: the percentage of total copies owned that are excess. If this percentage is a large positive number, it means the community as a whole is sick of this game. If it's a large negative number, it means there aren't nearly enough copies of the game to meet demand
In point of fact, this percentage is usually low or negative. Some games are in oversupply, but there's never a big increase in supply that's not met with demand. When I look at the change in the excess copy percentage between 2012 and 2013, I see games going from a high negative percentage of excess copies (much more demand than supply) to a low negative percentage in 2013 (a little more demand than supply) or a low positive percentage (demand has been met, and then some). This "supply" is supply on the trade market. It may be coming from a reprinting of the game, or from owners of existing copies deciding to put the game up for trade.
Game | Released in | 201208 excess copies | 201307 excess copies | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Western Town | 2005 | -675.00% | -14.89% | 660.11% | 7.50 |
Polis: Fight for the Hegemony | 2010 | -127.78% | -17.35% | 110.42% | 8.31 |
Pax Baltica | 2009 | -108.00% | -9.18% | 98.82% | 7.62 |
String Railway | 2009 | -95.09% | -16.82% | 78.27% | 6.66 |
Unexpected Treasures | 2002 | -79.41% | -10.50% | 68.91% | 6.29 |
Arctic Scavengers | 2009 | -74.59% | -20.26% | 54.33% | 6.82 |
New York | 2011 | -18.37% | 9.81% | 28.18% | 6.76 |
Mr. Jack Pocket: Goodies | 2011 | -31.45% | -4.37% | 27.08% | 7.16 |
Tammany Hall | 2007 | -36.44% | -11.98% | 24.46% | 7.45 |
Crude: The Oil Game | 1974 | -39.67% | -16.40% | 23.28% | 6.90 |
Medieval Mastery | 2011 | -36.17% | -14.10% | 22.07% | 6.14 |
WeyKick | 2001 | -56.10% | -34.18% | 21.92% | 6.95 |
Rockband Manager | 2010 | -21.33% | -0.65% | 20.68% | 6.37 |
Dungeon Fighter | 2011 | -30.00% | -10.25% | 19.75% | 7.00 |
Popular Front | 2010 | -40.00% | -22.08% | 17.92% | 7.44 |
Sergeants Miniatures Game: Day of Days | 2011 | -52.17% | -34.43% | 17.75% | 8.27 |
Ventura | 2011 | -15.00% | 2.42% | 17.42% | 6.87 |
Colonial: Europe's Empires Overseas | 2011 | -41.87% | -24.48% | 17.39% | 7.27 |
Upon a Salty Ocean | 2011 | -22.96% | -6.39% | 16.57% | 6.75 |
Scallywags | 2008 | -20.00% | -3.77% | 16.23% | 6.36 |
I also see scarce games becoming even more scarce (going from a negative percentage of excess copies to a larger negative percentage). I would expect some of these games to be reprinted soon.
Game | Released in | 201208 excess copies | 201307 excess copies | Percentage increase | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keydom | 1998 | -51.82% | -64.66% | -12.84% | 6.78 |
Swish | 2011 | 16.25% | 4.23% | -12.02% | 6.08 |
South African Railroads | 2011 | -11.39% | -22.78% | -11.39% | 7.64 |
Offboard | 2011 | 2.44% | -6.76% | -9.20% | 6.48 |
Cheaty Mages! | 2008 | -13.85% | -22.34% | -8.49% | 6.39 |
1846 | 2005 | -46.78% | -55.08% | -8.30% | 7.94 |
Mai-Star | 2010 | -13.92% | -22.11% | -8.18% | 6.45 |
RRR | 2010 | -13.64% | -20.92% | -7.28% | 6.86 |
Octego | 2007 | 6.67% | 0.00% | -6.67% | 6.27 |
Keytown | 2000 | -25.67% | -32.32% | -6.65% | 6.49 |
Schwarz Rot Gelb | 2011 | 4.17% | -2.47% | -6.64% | 5.92 |
Key Market | 2010 | -34.31% | -40.92% | -6.60% | 7.56 |
Cannonball Colony | 2008 | -43.48% | -50.00% | -6.52% | 7.06 |
Atlantis: Pathways of the Deep | 2001 | 27.08% | 20.65% | -6.43% | 4.23 |
Gumshoe | 1985 | -8.66% | -14.89% | -6.23% | 6.92 |
Monkey Dash | 2009 | 1.25% | -4.88% | -6.13% | 6.89 |
Age of Scheme: Routes to Riches | 2008 | -40.58% | -46.38% | -5.80% | 6.05 |
Knights of Camelot | 1980 | -0.40% | -6.02% | -5.62% | 6.34 |
Faux•Cabulary | 2011 | -5.88% | -11.43% | -5.55% | 5.97 |
Dixit 2: "The American" promo card | 2010 | -38.68% | -44.21% | -5.53% | 7.25 |
Here in 2013, these are the games with the highest positive percentages of excess copies: games for which as many as a quarter of the extant copies are up for trade. Unsurprisingly, all of these games are poorly rated, except for the champion, which is a placeholder, not a real game.
Game | Released in | Available | Wanted | Owned | Excess copy percentage | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outside the Scope of BGG | 0 | 496 | 106 | 1429 | 27.29% | 6.77 |
Ninja Galaxy | 2006 | 22 | 1 | 78 | 26.92% | 3.53 |
Barista | 2007 | 28 | 0 | 106 | 26.42% | 3.98 |
Employee of the Month | 2004 | 111 | 6 | 409 | 25.67% | 5.21 |
Ultimate Golf | 1985 | 45 | 2 | 171 | 25.15% | 4.65 |
aBRIDGEd | 2006 | 38 | 1 | 149 | 24.83% | 5.33 |
Vapor's Gambit | 2004 | 58 | 1 | 258 | 22.09% | 4.86 |
Raceway 57 | 2005 | 50 | 1 | 224 | 21.88% | 5.71 |
Dying Lights | 2003 | 45 | 3 | 194 | 21.65% | 5.09 |
Head-to-Head Poker | 2005 | 62 | 1 | 282 | 21.63% | 5.76 |
Double or Nothing | 2006 | 142 | 5 | 656 | 20.88% | 5.71 |
Atlantis: Pathways of the Deep | 2001 | 21 | 2 | 92 | 20.65% | 4.23 |
Tom Clancy's Politika | 1997 | 73 | 1 | 350 | 20.57% | 4.09 |
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Board Game | 2003 | 58 | 3 | 268 | 20.52% | 3.48 |
wordXchange | 2000 | 18 | 1 | 84 | 20.24% | 5.73 |
Crosstrack | 1994 | 40 | 4 | 180 | 20.00% | 5.18 |
24 DVD Board Game | 2006 | 19 | 0 | 95 | 20.00% | 2.34 |
221B Baker St.: Sherlock Holmes & the Time Machine | 1996 | 90 | 5 | 430 | 19.77% | 5.67 |
Pressure Matrix | 2010 | 38 | 5 | 170 | 19.41% | 4.92 |
Power Lunch | 1994 | 42 | 0 | 219 | 19.18% | 2.60 |
The games with the highest positive numbers of excess copies are basically the old standards like Munchkin and Risk. People would be happy to get rid of them in a trade, but nobody wants to acquire them in a trade. The champion is "Munchkin" with 707 excess copies, but since there are 19,774 copies of "Munchkin" out there, its excess copy percentage is only 4%.
And here are the games with the highest negative percentages of excess copies: games that are highly in demand relative to how many copies are out there. The number of people with these games on their wishlist approximates or even exceeds the number of extant copies.
Looking at the list it's obvious that most of these games are highly rated. What's not so obvious is that a lot of them have unusual physical shapes or components. An amazing percentage of these games involve flicking or stacking or sliding things. Relatively few are typical American or Euro-style board games based around cards and tokens. If I had to guess, I'd say that people don't put these games up for trade because they'd be a pain to ship.
Game | Released in | Available | Wanted | Owned | Excess copy percentage | Average rating |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capes & Cowls: The Superhero Board Game | 2006 | 1 | 167 | 66 | -251.52% | 7.85 |
Spinball | 2001 | 0 | 50 | 31 | -161.29% | 6.86 |
Wok Star | 2010 | 13 | 369 | 282 | -126.24% | 7.14 |
Saturn | 1997 | 3 | 112 | 116 | -93.97% | 6.68 |
Taktika | 2007 | 9 | 157 | 175 | -84.57% | 7.20 |
1817 | 2010 | 0 | 46 | 55 | -83.64% | 8.72 |
Hotel Life | 1989 | 1 | 85 | 103 | -81.55% | 7.29 |
Curling Table Game | 2008 | 0 | 35 | 43 | -81.40% | 7.28 |
Dixit 2: "Gift" promo card | 2010 | 1 | 127 | 155 | -81.29% | 7.73 |
Qyshinsu: Mystery of the Way | 2008 | 0 | 24 | 34 | -70.59% | 6.94 |
Entrapment | 1999 | 0 | 25 | 36 | -69.44% | 8.14 |
Destruct 3 | 2005 | 6 | 40 | 51 | -66.67% | 5.15 |
Palazzo Paletti | 2001 | 0 | 31 | 47 | -65.96% | 6.63 |
Mäuse-Rallye | 2001 | 0 | 37 | 57 | -64.91% | 6.61 |
Keydom | 1998 | 1 | 76 | 116 | -64.66% | 6.78 |
Cornerstone | 2008 | 4 | 79 | 119 | -63.03% | 7.28 |
Fire | 1996 | 6 | 73 | 110 | -60.91% | 6.06 |
Hansa: Changing Winds | 2006 | 3 | 51 | 81 | -59.26% | 7.27 |
Santorini | 2004 | 1 | 68 | 118 | -56.78% | 7.48 |
1846 | 2005 | 1 | 104 | 187 | -55.08% | 7.94 |
BGG's "new hotness" list can be seen as a list of recent games with high negative numbers of excess copies. These are games that are highly in demand among BGG users, but which are also owned by a lot of BGG users. The champion is "Le Havre", with -965 excess copies.
This document (source) is part of Crummy, the webspace of Leonard Richardson (contact information). It was last modified on Monday, July 29 2013, 22:15:49 Nowhere Standard Time and last built on Sunday, March 26 2023, 21:00:22 Nowhere Standard Time.
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